Strategies
Blind test
The plan with the best record always looks like the one to follow, but it was found with hindsight. This test takes the hindsight out: each year, it picks the library plan with the best record up to then, follows it for that one year, and sets the result beside the C Fund.
Picking by the record so far
$10,000 moved into each year's pick, 2018 to 2025, would be about
$16,000
Left in the C Fund the whole time: about $29,100.
- Growth per year
- 6.0%
- C Fund 14.3%
- Beat the C Fund
- 2 of 8
- full calendar years
- Promised
- 16.1%
- the picks' average record before they were picked
- Delivered
- 9.0%
- their average in the year they were picked for
| Year and pick | Record before | That year | C Fund |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018#102095, timed switchJan, 15th trading day: S Fund; Apr, 15th trading day: F Fund; May, 15th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 15th trading day: F Fund; Aug, 15th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 15th trading day: F Fund; Oct, 15th trading day: S Fund; Dec, 15th trading day: F Fund | 16.8% | −16.4% | −4.4% |
| 2019#100047, timed switchApr, 15th trading day: F Fund; May, 15th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 15th trading day: F Fund; Aug, 15th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 15th trading day: F Fund; Oct, 15th trading day: S Fund | 14.9% | 38.2% | 31.5% |
| 2020#100047, timed switchApr, 15th trading day: F Fund; May, 15th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 15th trading day: F Fund; Aug, 15th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 15th trading day: F Fund; Oct, 15th trading day: S Fund | 16.1% | 3.5% | 18.3% |
| 2021#75477, timed switchFeb, 10th trading day: F Fund; Mar, 10th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 10th trading day: F Fund; Aug, 10th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 10th trading day: F Fund; Oct, 10th trading day: S Fund | 17.3% | 5.9% | 28.7% |
| 2022#100049, timed switchFeb, 15th trading day: F Fund; Mar, 15th trading day: S Fund; Apr, 15th trading day: F Fund; May, 15th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 15th trading day: F Fund; Aug, 15th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 15th trading day: F Fund; Oct, 15th trading day: S Fund | 16.8% | −31.5% | −18.1% |
| 2023#71391, timed switchFeb, 10th trading day: G Fund; Mar, 10th trading day: S Fund; Apr, 10th trading day: G Fund; May, 10th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 10th trading day: G Fund; Aug, 10th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 10th trading day: G Fund; Oct, 10th trading day: S Fund | 14.5% | 51.6% | 26.2% |
| 2024#71391, timed switchFeb, 10th trading day: G Fund; Mar, 10th trading day: S Fund; Apr, 10th trading day: G Fund; May, 10th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 10th trading day: G Fund; Aug, 10th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 10th trading day: G Fund; Oct, 10th trading day: S Fund | 16.1% | 13.0% | 25.0% |
| 2025#71391, timed switchFeb, 10th trading day: G Fund; Mar, 10th trading day: S Fund; Apr, 10th trading day: G Fund; May, 10th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 10th trading day: G Fund; Aug, 10th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 10th trading day: G Fund; Oct, 10th trading day: S Fund | 16.0% | 7.5% | 17.8% |
| 2026*#71383, timed switchFeb, 10th trading day: G Fund; Mar, 10th trading day: S Fund; Jul, 10th trading day: G Fund; Aug, 10th trading day: S Fund; Sep, 10th trading day: G Fund; Oct, 10th trading day: S Fund | 15.8% | 16.8% | 13.8% |
Record before: the pick's growth per year from its first price in 2003 to the end of the year before; it is what the pick was chosen on. That year and C Fund: the calendar-year return. * 2026 so far, through Oct 27, 2026; not counted in the totals.
Official TSP share prices through Oct 27, 2026.
Past performance does not predict future returns. This is not investment advice.
How the test works
- The field is every plan in the strategy library, 161,112 plans. Plans visitors saved are left out, since some were saved knowing how the years turned out.
- Each year's pick is the plan with the highest growth per year from the first price on file to the last trading day of the year before. A tie goes to the lower plan number. Nothing from the year being tested is used to choose it.
- The result is the pick's own return over that calendar year, the same figure its page shows: as if you had moved into whatever it held at the close of the year before. That one switch between picks is not counted against the month's transfer limits.
- Totals count full calendar years only. The year still running is shown and marked, and is counted once it ends.
- The picks are worked out again after every price update, in the background thread that rescores the library.
The first pick is the plan with the best fitted years on the strategies page; the methodology says more, and how to read a backtest explains why the record before and the year after so often disagree.